What if Nationalisation didn't occur in 1948?

[Kyle1987]

In a similar vein to the "What if Bulleid had stayed?" thread, I'd like to pose the question of what would have happened on the LNER in terms infrastructure, locomotive design, etc if the Big 4 continued beyond 1947.

What may we have seen? Would Peppercorn have stay on for much long? Would an increase in dieselisation/electrification had occurred, and if so, when?

How would the LNER had looked if it existed past 1948?

[drmditch]

From the information contained in published works (RCTS etc) the following appear likely :-

Diesel Mechanical Railcars for the North East.Based on GWR designs and the loan of two cars in 1944.
RCTS Vol 10b Page 6 refers to Doncaster Drawings being similiar to the leter GWR cars.
Do these drawings exist ?

Main Line Diesels for the ECMLBonavia History of the LNER Vol 3 Page 94.
Tenders from six contractors were opened by Sir Ronald Mathews on 12th November 1947.
Would these have been like the Class 40s ?

More Diesel ShuntersSame References.
Similiar to the LMS and BR Class 8s.

There might also have been work on big 4-8-4s and 4-8-2s

The major problem would have been revenue and funding. Although various alternatives to nationalisation were put forward, it is unlikely that in the political circumstances of the time any other options would have been possible.
It would be nice to think that the commercial expertise of the LNER might have made a better job of the following decades, if given adequate legislative freedom.

On my railway, (owing to Battle of Jutland in 1916 having been an unambiguous British victory) and the whole of subsequent commercial and history having been different), nationalisation has not happened. I have an apple green A1 with LNER on the tender, and it being 1954 (the centenary of the NER) the LNER has repainted some NER stock into NER Livery.

(But this is my Railway !)

[CVR1865]

Do you have a class 40 in lined apple green livery? That would look good.

Have you also kept the valances on your A4's?

It would be great to see some pictures, although slightly hijacking the thread, sorry.

[strang steel]

Maybe the LNER would have been declared insolvent by 1950, and possibly would have precipitated public ownership anyway? Who knows?

My fictitious model railway scenario assumes a Labour victory in the 1951 election (after all Labour polled the most votes then) and a more modest programme of "modernisation" being carried out without the lemming-like rush to dieselise almost everything as soon as possible.

[Sailor Charon]

It's possible that the big 4-8-4s would have appeared. And they would have been big beasties too. The LMS were thinking of a 4-8-4, but they would have had 5'6" wheels rather than 6'8"... Somehow, magnificent though they would have been, I don't think they would have been built. (Maybe I'll get round to knocking one up to run on my layout... ) Which is a shame...

[Atlantic 3279]

I'm not sure that the LNER main line diesels would have been at all like class 40s. The little I have read on the subject has included mention of twin-unit diesels. Whether single ended units coupled back to back were envisaged, and whether the general intention was Bo-Bos, Co-Cos or something else, I have no idea. If the job was open to tender, including the design, then one might imagine that almost anything could have resulted, unless the spec for the tendering process laid down some fixed features.

An imaginary exchange yard and shed complex somewhere around South Yorkshire or thereabouts with lined green EM1s, EB1 banking engines, twin unit diesels, and steam (including V4s and of course re-deployed un-molested P2 Mikados for heavy passenger turns) would make an unusual model - delightfully annoying to the unimaginitive historical accuracy purists too.

[brsince78]

Further build(s) of A1 Pacifics under Peppercorn (I think I've read somewhere that these were requested by the Eastern Region but were turned down in favour of the Standard Locomotive building programme?). Pepp would have stayed until his death in 1951 and would have been succeeded by Freddie Harrison.

[JustinTime]

Assuming Nationalisation didn't happen, then a Beechingesque paring, in the absence of Government money would almost certainly have had to be considered by the Four, possibly including an amalgamation of the LNE and LMS. This may have, in a roundabout way brought on nationalisation by the back door, whoever was in power...IMO, that is!

It IS difficult though to imagine a scenario in 1945/1950 in which the government would expect the rail companies to pick up from where they were in '39 without some massive state subsidy which I suppose would have been de facto Nationalisation.

It's intriguing to think that Electrification and Modernisation may have been hastened had British Railways not been conceived.

[Pyewipe Junction]

Assuming Nationalisation didn't happen, then a Beechingesque paring, in the absence of Government money would almost certainly have had to be considered by the Four, possibly including an amalgamation of the LNE and LMS. This may have, in a roundabout way brought on nationalisation by the back door, whoever was in power...IMO, that is!

Agreed, but in the immediate postwar period, economic conditions would have been favourable for the railways in terms of traffic. It is an ironic fact that wars are often followed by periods of high economic activity during the reconstruction phase. This would have translated into more passengers and freight and may have masked the real problem, which was the underlying run-down condition of infrastructure, locomotives, rolling stock etc and lack of funds for capital investment. Plus, government would have inevitably have short-changed the railways in compensation payments, just as it did after WWI.

In addition, the railways had been unprepared for the competition from road transport. Railways seemed to be run by railwaymen for the benefit of railwaymen, with passenger trains often running at odd times going back to pre-WWI timetables and not making connections with mainline services.

Forums like this tend to focus on the glamour of the railways. And that's OK as far as it goes. But the fact is that in 1945 all the Big Four (with the possible exception of the Southern) were basket cases.

So I, for one dread to think what might have happened in nationalisation hadn't taken place.

[giner]

I'm not sure that the LNER main line diesels would have been at all like class 40s. The little I have read on the subject has included mention of twin-unit diesels. Whether single ended units coupled back to back were envisaged, and whether the general intention was Bo-Bos, Co-Cos or something else, I have no idea. If the job was open to tender, including the design, then one might imagine that almost anything could have resulted, unless the spec for the tendering process laid down some fixed features.

An imaginary exchange yard and shed complex somewhere around South Yorkshire or thereabouts with lined green EM1s, EB1 banking engines, twin unit diesels, and steam (including V4s and of course re-deployed un-molested P2 Mikados for heavy passenger turns) would make an unusual model - delightfully annoying to the unimaginitive historical accuracy purists too.

I had a quick look for it without success, but I think 'manna' put up a photo some time back of an Atco back-to-back unit. I believe the photo was taken at Stratford shed and I had no idea that any of that type had ever set foot in Britain. So maybe the mention of twin-unit diesels that you remember had alluded to locos of an Atco design.

Manna, can you point us to your photo once again, please?

[Autocar Publicity]

Private enterprise is usually more efficient than the public sector, for all sorts of reasons. Though railways are one of the industries that are able to take advantage of economies of scale, I do think that British Railways was hamstrung throughout its life by politicians and never had a chance to show its full potential.

The initial problem was that the British railways had been run into the ground during the 1939-45 war and whilst giving the Allies the means to achieve victory, the failure to compensate the big four for the problems caused by wartime conditions (once again) demonstrated politicians' lack of gratitude and honesty. Without the contribution to the war effort made by the railways, most of these politicians would probably have died in concentration camps or in Gestapo cellars.

The Modernisation Plan was a case of style over substance and driven by politics and PR rather than common sense, logic and the actual needs of the network. When you spend your own money or have to account for your firm's money to Head Office or a vigilant MD, it concentrates minds and rewards planning and strategic thinking.

Speculation I know, but I'd say if we hadn't had nationalisation, there would have been further development of steam engines, especially on the Great Central line with better clearances, possibly even leading to a HS2 (1...) in the 1970s; wider and earlier electrification, wider use of DMUs (whether based on Autocars or the GWR railcars) and fewer preserved lines.

[manna]

G'Day Gents

The photo that giner wanted to see is this one, but I posted a picture of the Wrong loco, this being a Goodwin Alco design built in NSW for South Australian Railways, the one that I wanted to put up as a contender for the LNER buying a diesel loco was a loco built in the UK and exported to Australia for use on the Commonwealth railways in about 1951, unfortunately I can not find the picture of that loco, sorry
manna

[giner]

Yes, that's the photo, manna, thanks. But I'm still a bit confused (nothing new about that ). The rollover caption says 'at Mile End'. So would that be a namesake Mile End in South Australia? Maybe that's what threw me into thinking it was Stratford. Anyhoo, if you do find the photo you mention, please do post it. Cheers!

[manna]

G'Day Gents

Yep, Mile End, South Australia, only 2 miles from the city center,back in the 60's a huge redundant roundhouse chocked full of steam engines, the only thing being used was the turntable for turning single ended diesels, next door was a large marshalling yard, today the whole lot has been cleared away, and is now housing, running tracks and light industry, all very depressing.

manna

PS I'll keep looking for that picture.

[PGBerrie]

What about the Woodhead electricification? Would it have been extended towards London?

Peter