The long-term future of King's Cross

[Pyewipe Junction]

The other night I watched a YouTube video on the rollout and eventual service pattern for HS2. This left me wondering what the future of King's Cross will be as a mainline terminus once HS2 is up and running in 2035 (which isn't as far away as it seems).

HS2 will run as far as York via the East Midlands and Leeds, then on conventional tracks to Newcastle. On the other side, it appears that HS2 will run frequent trains to Glasgow and Edinburgh via Wigan. What TOC will want to invest in an ECML franchise with HS2 staring at it as an imminent competitor? All that will be left are services south of York, which aren't very much. Presumably many passengers will choose HS2 to get to Leeds.

[strang steel]

I see the point you are making Pyewipe, but wouldn't the decline of the ECML be the opposite of what we are told is the reason that silly money can be spent on HS2 i.e. extra capacity between London and Northern England?

To produce an analogy on TOCS not wanting to invest in services where they may be faster competition, Southwest Trains seem not to worry about their Waterloo-Exeter services, even with competition from First GW on the Berks & Hants route.

Is everyone tempted by speed over price? (Presumably, HS2 services will command a significant fare premium?).

[Mickey]

The quest for greater speed...!

I'm not interested in HS2 in the slightest I only like Britain's railways from the past. The WCML out of Euston still seems ok to me if I wanted to travel to Birmingham or Manchester or Glasgow the trains go fast enough already.

[JASd17]

With the very greatest of respect Mickey, I don't think HS2 is concerned about your custom.

What might be interesting, is if 'new ways of working' significantly reduce the custom the line actually does want, especially the premium priced travellers. Making the whole project less viable.

That is a judgement/gamble that government has to take, not characters like Edward Watkin at the end the 19th Century!

John

[Mickey]

No problem John my interest in Britain's railways fades to zero by start of the 1980s.

I travelled passed Euston station a couple of weeks ago and the old 1960s British Rail frontage appears to be being demolished and turned into a building site for the coming HS2 project.

[Pyewipe Junction]

I see the point you are making Pyewipe, but wouldn't the decline of the ECML be the opposite of what we are told is the reason that silly money can be spent on HS2 i.e. extra capacity between London and Northern England?

To produce an analogy on TOCS not wanting to invest in services where they may be faster competition, Southwest Trains seem not to worry about their Waterloo-Exeter services, even with competition from First GW on the Berks & Hants route.

Is everyone tempted by speed over price? (Presumably, HS2 services will command a significant fare premium?).

The proposed service pattern (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2) indicates that HS2 is intending to dominate the market rather than just take up unmet capacity. I wonder what the experience in France would tell us. If you wanted to go from Paris to, say, Lyons, Marseille or Bordeaux, would you take a conventional train or the TGV? I won't try to answer that as I think the answer is pretty clear.

[Hatfield Shed]

Let's see if there is the money to complete HS2. We are in a somewhat different place than when the project plan was set.

The East Coast route will continue to make sense for passengers on the East side of the country for whom it is a much more accessible option. Where it terminates in London, is another matter.

[strang steel]

The proposed service pattern (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2) indicates that HS2 is intending to dominate the market rather than just take up unmet capacity. I wonder what the experience in France would tell us. If you wanted to go from Paris to, say, Lyons, Marseille or Bordeaux, would you take a conventional train or the TGV? I won't try to answer that as I think the answer is pretty clear.

Yes, I would probably take the TGV, but that there remains a conventional alternative must show there is a demand for a slower but probably cheaper service.

There has been a stopping service to Kings Cross from Peterborough for decades, and if time was not a problem I would take that; irrespective of the speed of the faster services. Maybe it is because I am an enthusiast and getting from A to B as quickly as possible is not my only priority when using the train, especially if I can save money at the same time.

[PGBerrie]

The proposed service pattern (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2) indicates that HS2 is intending to dominate the market rather than just take up unmet capacity. I wonder what the experience in France would tell us. If you wanted to go from Paris to, say, Lyons, Marseille or Bordeaux, would you take a conventional train or the TGV? I won't try to answer that as I think the answer is pretty clear.

I don't think that you can compare TGVs or for that matter German ICE trains to the HS2 project. Both run on routes all over the country, partially built especially for high-speed running, but also partly on conventional routes. Intercity 125, which was realized around the same time, provides a better comparison.

The TGVs are an all reservation service, but certainly not a high cost one. To quote from the entry on Wikipedia, "To counteract the popular misconception that the TGV would be a premium service for business travellers, SNCF started a major publicity campaign focusing on the speed, frequency, reservation policy, normal price, and broad accessibility of the service" There are always plenty of bargains if you book in advance.

Peter

[billbedford]

The proposed service pattern (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2) indicates that HS2 is intending to dominate the market rather than just take up unmet capacity.

The whole raison d'etre of HS2 is to transfer all the fast trains off the WCML to free up capacity for local services and freight.