Freak weather!

[2002EarlMarischal]

Well, we can't complain about the lack of water troughs

Haha! Tempting maybe, but I wouldn't recommend lowering a water scoop!

[Blink Bonny]

Ay up!

For once, we can't blame corporate neglect. That was one serious storm.

[Autocar Publicity]

I was in the shed at Embsay doing some work on the autocar. It's not often the noise of rain on the roof drowns out the sound of an angle grinder...

I've noticed changes in the weather over my lifetime, particularly in the last ten or so. I know there's lots of arguments over what's causing it, but anyone who tries to deny things are changing (and very rapidly) needs to stick their head in a bucket of ice-cold water - or get hit by one of 2002EM's hailstones. As the saying goes, once is happenstance, twice is unlucky, thrice is enemy action...

[52D]

Blackout the last or first troughs 0n the ECML depending on travelling direction were only a few miles further south at Lucker, they were fed from a nearby burn so i bet the track was flooded at that location as well. You often had northbound Deltics and EE type 4s having a dip at lucker to top up their steam heat boilers for a few years after steam traction ended.

[strang steel]

I was in the shed at Embsay doing some work on the autocar. It's not often the noise of rain on the roof drowns out the sound of an angle grinder...

I've noticed changes in the weather over my lifetime, particularly in the last ten or so. I know there's lots of arguments over what's causing it, but anyone who tries to deny things are changing (and very rapidly) needs to stick their head in a bucket of ice-cold water - or get hit by one of 2002EM's hailstones. As the saying goes, once is happenstance, twice is unlucky, thrice is enemy action...

Ok, ok.

There seems to be a growing consensus that the weather is changing but as yet there are no actual statistics provided to prove it.

I will refrain from sticking my head in a bucket of ice cold water just yet, if you dont mind, because after working for 35 years as a meteorologist I prefer to deal in the facts, and very few of those seem to be forthcoming.

Remember that people have very short and inaccurate memories when it comes to the past weather.

Some folk say this is the worst early summer weather in living memory, which may be true if you are aged under 30, but I can assure you that the summers of 1962 and 1972 were worse than this. At least we have had the occasional day where the maximum temperature reached 22 C. In 1972 we hadn't - at least not by the beginning of July, in fact in 1972 the maximum on the longest day of the year (June 21st) was lower than the previous December 21st.

So, please let me have reasons (other than lurid tabloid, and 24 hour TV news, headlines) which lead to the conclusion that the weather is getting worse.

After all, unless I am part of a massive meteorological conspiracy to cover up the increasing incidence of severe weather, then don't you think that I would be agreeing with everything that was said about deteriorating climate?

[Autocar Publicity]

No offence intended strang steel, I got a little carried away. I wouldn't disagree with anything you say above, though would like to reply/clarify:

I believe that change is ongoing and inevitable. Weather (I am told) goes in cycles and like it's usually said of history, we live in a time of transition. (From what to what, I'll let you comment on...)

I also know averages are also made up of many readings, from high to low, and there is a difference between mean, median and mode.

I understand these changes to normally happen gradually over decades if not centuries, possible recent exceptions being the effects from the eruptions from Krakatoea and Mount St. Helens. But I would count these as blips rather than part of an underlying trend.

I do not take readings every day but include a brief description of the weather in my diary/daybook and have done this for 19 years. Hardly scientific, but I think it's enough for a pointer.

Over the second half of this time, I have noted more - I've not added them up but say about 50% more - 'extreme' weather events. I have also noted that the summers seem to be becoming more unsettled, with more rainy days. I appreciate that this again is not scientific and dependent on my values remaining constant, however, as I try to be as objective as possible in recording facts, I would hope that such variations would be small.

One of my colleagues does take records for the Met Office and he has made more weather related comments to 'severe' or record-breaking readings over the last five years than the previous ten for which I have known him. Earlier this year, his station was smashed up because of a storm - the first time in over 40 years. Again, hardly scientific, but another pointer.

As a result of this, I honestly believe that the weather I have seen or heard reported is becoming more changeable and more prone to 'extreme' weather events. I do accept you are in a far better position to comment or provide analysis and I certainly didn't think you were part of some secret conspiratorial to cover up. Perhaps if you have time, a few statistics or a link to them might be interesting?

[strang steel]

That's ok. I was not taking offence, but I just prefer to temper this seemingly runaway idea that the weather is becoming more extreme.

I do not deny that there are extreme weather events taking place every year, and some may feel that things were never as bad as this, but take a look at the summers of the 1960s. Most of them were pretty dire.

Our last hot summer was only 2006, and 2003 wasn't too bad either. If we had another 1976, 1959 or 1983 summer this year, people would be quick to say that it was proof that we are suffering from the effects of global warming, but these events happen on an occasional basis back into history. Remember that many rural areas broke their maximum temperature records in early August 1990.

Winters are just the same. A 1946/7, 1962/3 or 1978/9 winter is not going to come along very often, and if it does these days the media will bang on non-stop about it being a 'freak'. It is not a freak, just part of the wide variation of weather we can experience because of our rather unique position on the surface of the planet.

Take a look at this web page to see whether you think we are getting the severity of winters that we used to:-

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... tory;sess=

Winters are not difficult to quantify in terms of disruption and inconvenience, because sub-zero temperatures, snow and ice are the main variables involved and these are easy to analyse.

Summers are rather more complex, with a mixture of temperature, rainfall, hours of sunshine and maybe even wind speed combining in various ways to a more subjective assessment of what may be considered a good summer.

Some have attempted to calculate a summer index, but a quick search has not come up with any reliable online tables so far, but the Met Office site has temperature records for the UK, and the England one is here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ ... um_england

You will note that while some are recent, others are not.

I will try and find more online statistics, when I have a few minutes to spare.

[manna]

G'Day Gents

The Mammoth's are coming...............must be another Ice Age

manna

[richard]

It is difficult to tally individual weather events to climate. One is weather, the other is climate. Hurricanes are a good example where there are good stats for at least a few decades. The last few years have been relatively quiet in the North Atlantic (there is a known cyclicity), but it does look like the season is getting longer. Recent years have seen more North Atlantic hurricanes in June/July, and some even into December / first few days of January. Okay we're already up to 4 this summer, but that could be a one off - look over the last few decades and a pattern begins to emerge.

And memories are indeed short, after the tornado outbreak in the Dallas area back in April, local news did indeed call it "the worse in living memory" - forgetting the evening 10 years ago when Fort Worth had two major tornadoes in its Downtown. Two skyscrapers were boarded up for years after that. A roof ripped off an apartment complex and a few dozen houses is not quite the same!

However, 3 of the 4 hottest state months ever recorded in the US happened last year. (TX, OK, LA). That is a figure averaged over the entire month, so the record is usually only broken 0.1F or so at a time. In the case of TX & OK (1st and 2nd respectively), the record was broken by over 1F.
And when you look at global trends, there is a very definite and distinct pattern over the past few decades. Insurance claims due to weather events also make interesting reading (true, the value of insured goods are also constantly increasing, but claim rates are increasing at a much faster rate).

[Blink Bonny]

Ay up!

It could be Global Warming......

Then again, Bob Hope used to say that England was the only place in the world you got all 4 seasons in one day. Don't like the season? Hang on, it'll change.

The question is, and we need FACTS not rumours to back this up: is the weather getting more extreme? And do these extreme weather events happen more regularly than they used to?

[richard]

Weather vs climate: You can't say "global warming" over an individual event, but taken globally over the years, the Earth's atmosphere is getting warmer, and anthropogenic factors are the main causes. The facts are out there, and it is perhaps a sad testament to poor science education and the deep pockets of various lobbies that the general public perception is that everything is so undecided.

We even have geological analogues - the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum is a particularly good one. 40Ma ago (yesterday in geological terms) and resulted from a similar amount of carbon being put into the atmosphere. The exact mechanism is open to debate but appears to be related to Greenland/Iceland/British volcanism ("North Atlantic Tertiary Province" and similar names) baking organic sediments and/or destabilizing methyl hydrates. The Earth recovered but it took about 100-200,000 years to do so. At its peak the north pole experienced tropical conditions, albeit from a warmer (ice cap free) baseline.

It is happening, The political will to fix it does not exist, so mitigation is what is required. Humans will survive, but cities like London and New York are going to be spending 100s of billions of dollars in the next century saving themselves. Other cities like Venice and New Orleans will probably have to be sacrificed. (both cities also have long term slower tectonic issues which we are powerless against).

[mr B]

turbulence from wind turbine's ? and no I'm not a anti windmiller , but why have so many , surly they could be built like conventional mills transmittin power to underground generators and would be welcome by all.

mr B

[strang steel]

Yes, the planet is warming up, and there is no denying that most of the warmest years globally in the last 200 years, have occurred in the last 20 years.

However, I think that urban conurbation temperature records are now unreliable for the simple reason that the growth of most cities over the last 30 years means that the area of concrete and tarmac has increased many times, and the heat island effect has spread into ever larger circles.

Not only that, but the increased use of home and office air conditioning means that on a hot day, these cities are just pumping more and more heat into the atmosphere.

One of the big problems with global warming is not just the greenhouse effect or melting ice caps, but the fact that as water heats up it expands. With the vast amount of water in the oceans, that expansion will increase sea levels by about a foot even before the other factors kick in.

[Autocar Publicity]

An [Caribbean] Indian tribe have a saying that every boat launched raises the sea level of the world by a tiny amount. (Quite correct when you think about it but I think it provides a new definition of 'tiny'...).

I think two other problems are the acidification of the seas and decreased oxygen content. Together with the risk of major currents changing direction and/or volume, there seems to be plenty to worry about.

[Horsetan]

turbulence from wind turbine's ? ....

Remove the word "turbine" and you may be closer to the truth. Particularly after a curry.

An [Caribbean] Indian tribe have a saying that every boat launched raises the sea level of the world by a tiny amount. (Quite correct when you think about it but I think it provides a new definition of 'tiny'...). .....

Would be interesting to see if this tribe discovered the Archimedes Principle before Archimedes did. And whether they had an equivalent tribal word for "Eureka!"