Endless Delays in shpments from China
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Endless Delays in shpments from China
Are other people as fed up as I am with evermore delays announced? I suspect that there is a competition for westward shipping space to arrive before Christmas and our suppliers are getting pushed to the back of the queue being unwilling to pay the current prices. Either that or they are now coming on junks. The teaclipper Taiping took 3 months to bring her cargo back - perhaps AS are using something similar?
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jwealleans
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Re: Endless Delays in shpments from China
I have to say it all rather passes me by, Ray, but Model Railways are a very small item in the overall scheme of things and liable to be pushed down the queue in favour of larger/more regular/more profitable consignments. I can also understand the manufacturers reluctance to pay over the odds: although I boggle at the prices they're charging for wagons these days, I understand that margins are still tight and they don't have a lot of room on the bottom line for extra costs. It's the harsh reality of sending manufacturing half way round the world, I'm afraid.
Re: Endless Delays in shpments from China
Want it now, want it yesterday.
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Atlantic 3279
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Re: Endless Delays in shpments from China
In which case, as I believe the approximate South Yorks traditional expression may be, "mekkit thi' sen"...
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Re: Endless Delays in shpments from China
I think Xmas as a reason for delivery delays seems very unlikely to me.
Anything not already in the warehouses if indeed not in the shops is unlikely to meet the Xmas rush - now starting not with the run up to Christmas but rather with Black Friday - and increasingly a run up to that with pre-BF sales already in motion.
I am afraid I am too long out of the business to give you the specific reasons but some thoughts include:
US purchasing managers pre-empting a Trump win and anticipating the proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods, placing massive orders to get goods into the US before 20.1.2025.
Thus creating a switch of ships and containers to China -> USA routes rather than China-> Europe.
The effective closure of the Suez canal makes shipping round the cape more expensive and some European purchasers may be unwilling to pay and may be holding out in the hope of a re-opening.
Severe storms and flooding in China in June resulted in hundreds of thousands of people being displaced for a while. How quickly can they return and what damage was done to manufacturing? Speculation on my part but it does take time to recover from major flooding.
Anything not already in the warehouses if indeed not in the shops is unlikely to meet the Xmas rush - now starting not with the run up to Christmas but rather with Black Friday - and increasingly a run up to that with pre-BF sales already in motion.
I am afraid I am too long out of the business to give you the specific reasons but some thoughts include:
US purchasing managers pre-empting a Trump win and anticipating the proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods, placing massive orders to get goods into the US before 20.1.2025.
Thus creating a switch of ships and containers to China -> USA routes rather than China-> Europe.
The effective closure of the Suez canal makes shipping round the cape more expensive and some European purchasers may be unwilling to pay and may be holding out in the hope of a re-opening.
Severe storms and flooding in China in June resulted in hundreds of thousands of people being displaced for a while. How quickly can they return and what damage was done to manufacturing? Speculation on my part but it does take time to recover from major flooding.
Re: Endless Delays in shpments from China
The more I think about it, the more I think that the summer storms will be the prime cause of the delays.
The worst affected areas were Hong Kong, Guangdong and Hunan. the first two are where most of our models are made.
The normal layout of a factory will have goods in and goods out at ground level. Manufacturing may or may not be at road level - so the machines may have escaped damage. However, a lots of the stores areas will have been affected. At best materials stored at ground level will have been destroyed with those at a higher level in racks or stacked on top of other goods surviving or perhaps having water wicking up cardboard packaging.
So once the waters recede and services have been restored (quite possibly several weeks to dry out so that electricity can be turned on again), a review of stock can be made. Lost finished goods will need to be remade, pushing new production (already delayed) back. As for raw materials, losses will need to be replaced and here there are 2 scenarios.
1. You have a local supplier - but he may well have been flooded out too and will need time to replace your lost stock.
2. You have distant suppliers and it will take time to get the goods to you over quite probably damaged infrastructure- but maybe quicker than the local guys.
China being China will not have wanted to widely advertise such issues.
All in all I could see several months of disruption which will feed through to delivery delays.
The worst affected areas were Hong Kong, Guangdong and Hunan. the first two are where most of our models are made.
The normal layout of a factory will have goods in and goods out at ground level. Manufacturing may or may not be at road level - so the machines may have escaped damage. However, a lots of the stores areas will have been affected. At best materials stored at ground level will have been destroyed with those at a higher level in racks or stacked on top of other goods surviving or perhaps having water wicking up cardboard packaging.
So once the waters recede and services have been restored (quite possibly several weeks to dry out so that electricity can be turned on again), a review of stock can be made. Lost finished goods will need to be remade, pushing new production (already delayed) back. As for raw materials, losses will need to be replaced and here there are 2 scenarios.
1. You have a local supplier - but he may well have been flooded out too and will need time to replace your lost stock.
2. You have distant suppliers and it will take time to get the goods to you over quite probably damaged infrastructure- but maybe quicker than the local guys.
China being China will not have wanted to widely advertise such issues.
All in all I could see several months of disruption which will feed through to delivery delays.